Climate Science: Hawaiian Context
Climate vs. Weather
Climate science studies the physical components of the atmosphere and their interactions over long periods of time (decades to thousands of years), as well as the mechanisms through which atmospheric processes shift over such time intervals. Whereas climate science helps us understand what we can generally expect as far as rain, wind, clouds, or temperature in a specific region over long time periods, weather is the immediate status of these variables in a specific location or their status over a very short period of time, such as the current temperature or the temperature over a few days or weeks.
Clear Evidence of Change
“The climate has changed many times in the geologic past due to natural causes — including volcanic activity, changes in the sun’s intensity, fluctuations in Earth's orbit, and other factors — but none of these can account for the current rise in global temperatures”
(Union of Concerned Scientists web page on global warming, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming, accessed January 10, 2017).
“The Scientific evidence is clear. Within the scientific community, there is no debate. An overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that global warming is happening and that human activity is the primary cause”
(Union of Concerned Scientists web page on global warming, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming, accessed January 10, 2017).
What is at Stake in the Pacific?
"Island communities in the Pacific and the Caribbean are isolated, trade-dependent, and ocean-oriented cultures that are especially vulnerable to climate change. Marine and coastal ecosystems of the islands are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Sea-level rise, increasing water temperatures, rising storm intensity, coastal inundation and flooding from extreme events, beach erosion, ocean acidification, increased incidences of coral disease, and increased invasions by non-native species are among the threats that endanger the ecosystems that provide safety, sustenance, economic viability, and cultural and traditional values to island communities"
(Fletcher 2013: 214-215).
The Socio-Ecological Setting of Hawaiʻi Island
Hawaiʻi is a remote rural island encompassing 4,024 square miles in the Central Pacific and rising from sea level to nearly 14,000 ft in elevation with five volcanic mountains (see Fig.1 from the Manager Needs Assessment section). The heterogeneous terrain is characterized by spatially unique climate variability that drives an equally rare diversity of ecosystems and biota within close proximity and thereby a distinct array of climate change impacts. Trade winds and resulting orographic rainfall and cloud formation interact with a temperature inversion layer and island topography to form an island resembling a miniature continent (Juvik and Juvik 1998).
Communities on the island are highly localized, experience a wide range of ecosystems and climate regimes, and are characterized by extensive histories of indigenous Hawaiian and immigrant cultures (McMillen et al. 2017). These highly complex geopolitical landscapes and seascapes result in a diversity of landowners and political arenas interacting in close proximity on the island, including non-governmental organizations (NGOs), federal, state, county, and private organizations. This socio-ecological assemblage makes the island a representative site for other locations globally that are working to be resilient and adaptive under a changing climate.
Climate Science in Hawaiʻi
Climate change threats to resource managers on the Hawaiian Islands involve a wide range of impacts across the island’s landscapes and seascapes. Some of these impacts include
- sea level rise (Reynolds et al. 2015)
- potential increase in storm intensity (Chen and Chu 2014; IPCC 2014) with decreasing and variable annual rainfall (Chu and Chen 2005) threatening human infrastructure and communities (IPCC 2014)
Examples of further impacts on human communities include:
- inundating storm and waste water systems (Rotzoll and Fletcher 2012)
- increasing invasive species (Jacobi and Berkowitz, personal communications)
- increasing coastal erosion (Vitousek et al. 2010; Fletcher et al. 2012; Anderson et al. 2015) threatening traditional Hawaiian cultural sites and cultural practices along the coast (Vitousek et al. 2010; Marrack and O’Grady 2014)
- increasing erosion (Vitousek et al. 2010; Fletcher et al. 2012; Anderson et al. 2015) causing potential human health risks through shifts in near-shore water chemistry and bacteria levels (Strauch et al. 2014)
Climate change will also impact ecological systems through:
- increasing reef acidification (Anthony et al. 2008)
- shifting groundwater flows (Rotzoll and Fletcher 2012) altering nutrient flux into coastal and nearshore systems
- increasing wildfire size and occurrence (Trauernicht et al. 2015; Frazier and Giambelluca 2016)
- altering forest community composition through invasive species colonization (Vorsino et al. 2014; Camp et al. in press)
- altering the distribution and abundance of native forest bird populations due to a rising mosquito-avian disease line (Atkinson et al. 2014; Liao et al. 2015; Paxton et al. 2016)
Our Approach: Adaptation through Local Networks and Collaborative Science
The Psychology of Shifting Human Behavior
Research in psychology and cognitive science has made clear that humans do not make decisions according to predominantly or exclusively rational, analytical capacities. Rather, human behavior is more profoundly based upon intrinsic affective (emotional) and experiential capacities that are driven by person-to-person and person-to-nature interactions, group norms and values, individual values, perceptions, instincts, intuitions, and related visceral factors that collectively define one's identity or worldview (Ingold 2011; Jones et al. 2011; Kahan et al. 2012; van der Linden et al. 2015; Jones et al. 2016, Amel et al. 2017, Laursen et al. 2018). For this reason, our program is designed to build upon existing in-person professional networks locally through the process of knowledge co-production. We feel that directly and regularly supporting person-to-person and person-to-nature relationships within local networks harnesses multiple knowledge forms and utilizes a wide range of capacities and place-based experiences that collectively exert strong influence on human behavior. If we want to build adaptive capacity through major socio-ecological shifts and establish increasingly sustainable lifestyles, it is imperative that we account for and directly engage the full breadth of analytical and intrinsic capacities that drive human behavior.
In-Person Collaboration: research products that influence human behavior and build adaptive capacity
The MCC seeks to empower cultural adaptation amid contemporary climate change impacts by building upon local, in-person relationships and rooting research efforts within local manager networks (see our Manager Context section). Employing knowledge co-production within our growing professional networks, the MCC supports research products that have increased probability of being readily utilized by managers and policy professionals due to the direct involvement of such professionals throughout the scientific process and their vested interest in the collaborative products that develop.
Amel E, Manning C, Scott B, Koger S (2017) Beyond the roots of human inaction: fostering collective effort toward ecosystem conservation. Science, 356(6335), 275-279.
Anderson TR, Fletcher CH, Barbee MM, Frazer LN, Romine BM (2015) Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaiʻi. Natural Hazards 78(1):75-103
Anthony KR, Kline DI, Diaz-Pulido G, Dove S, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2008) Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105(45):17442-17446
Atkinson CT, Utzurrum RB, Lapointe DA, Camp RJ, Crampton LH, Foster JT, Giambelluca TW (2014) Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands–an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kauaʻi. Global Change Biology 20(8):2426-2436.
Camp RJ, Berkowitz SP, Brinck KW, Jacobi JD, Price J, Fortini LB (In Press) Potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management strategies in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. USGS Scientific Investigations Report.
Chen YR, Chu P (2014) Trends in precipitation extremes and return levels in the Hawaiian Islands under a changing climate. International Journal of Climatology 34(15):3913-3925.
Chu P-S, Chen H (2005) Interannual and interdecadal rainfall variations in the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Climate 18:4796–4813
Fletcher CH (2013) Climate change: what the science tells us. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Fletcher CH, Romine BM, Genz AS, Barbee MM, Dyer M, Anderson TR, Lim SC, Vitousek S, Bochicchio C, Richmond BM (2012) National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands. US Geological Survey Open-File Report 1051:55.
Frazier AG, Giambelluca TW (2016) Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4862
Ingold T (2011) The Perception of the Environment: essays on livelihood, dwelling and skill, 2nd edn. Routledge, London.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) Climate Change 2014–Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Regional Aspects. Cambridge University Press, New York, New York, USA.
Jones N, Ross H, Lynam T, Perez P, Leitch A (2011) Mental models: an interdisciplinary synthesis of theory and methods. Ecology and Society 16:46. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art46
Jones N, Shaw S, Ross H, Witt K, Pinner B (2016) The study of human values in understanding and managing social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 21(1):15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07977-210115
Juvik, S. and J. Juvik. (1998) Atlas of Hawaiʻi. University of Hawaiʻi Press, Honolulu, Hawaiʻi
Kahan DM, Peters E, Wittlin M, Slovic P, Ouellette LL, Braman D, Mandel G (2012) The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nat Climate Change 2:732-735
Laursen S, Puniwai N, Genz AS, Nash SAB, Canale LK, and Ziegler-Chong S (2018) Collaboration across worldviews: managers and scientists on Hawaiʻi Island utilize knowledge coproduction to facilitate climate change adaptation. Environmental Management 62(4): 619-630
Liao W, Timm OE, Zhang C, Atkinson CT, LaPointe DA, Samuel MD (2015) Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds? Global Change Biology 21(12):4342-4352
Marrack L, O'Grady P (2014) Predicting impacts of sea level rise for cultural and natural resources in five national park units on the island of Hawaiʻi. Technical Report No. 188. Pacific Cooperative Studies Unit, University of Hawaiʻi, Honolulu, Hawaiʻi, USA. 40 pp.
McMillen H, Ticktin T, Springer HK (2017) The future is behind us: traditional ecological knowledge and resilience over time on Hawai ‘i Island. Regional Environmental Change 17(2): 579-592. DOI 10.1007/s10113-016-1032-1
Paxton EH, Camp RJ, Gorresen PM, Crampton LH, Leonard DL, VanderWerf EA (2016) Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island. Science Advances 2(9):e1600029
Reynolds MH, Courtot KN, Berkowitz P, Storlazzi CD, Moore J, Flint E (2015) Will the effects of sea-level rise create ecological traps for pacific island seabirds? PloS one 10(9):e0136773.
Rotzoll K, Fletcher CH (2012) Assessment of groundwater inundation as a consequence of sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3(5):477-481
Strauch AM, Mackenzie RA, Bruland GL, Tingley R, Giardina CP (2014) Climate change and land use drivers of fecal bacteria in tropical Hawaiian rivers. Journal of Environmental Quality 43(4):1475-1483
Trauernicht C, Pickett E, Giardina CP, Litton CM, Cordell S, Beavers A (2015) The contemporary scale and context of wildfire in Hawaiʻi. Pacific Science 69(4):427-444
Union of Concerned Scientists Web Page (2017) http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming (accessed January 10, 2017)
van der Linden S, Maibach E, Leiserowitz A (2015) Improving public engagement with climate change: five "best practice" insights from psychological science. Perspect Psychol Sci 10:758-763. doi: 10.1177/1745691615598516
Vitousek S, Barbee M, Fletcher C, Genz A (2010) Pu’ukohola Heiau National Historic Site and Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Big Island of Hawai’i: coastal hazard analysis. Geologic Resources Division Report. Denver, Colorado: National Park Service, USA 66p.
Vorsino AE, Fortini LB, Amidon FA, Miller SE, Jacobi JD, Price JP, Koob GA (2014) Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates. PloS one 9(5):e95427.
The MCC partners with the Tropical Conservation Biology and Environmental Science Graduate Program at UH Hilo and is a part of the larger tri-university consortium of the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center (PI-CASC).