Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities

Author:

Ludwig, Donald

Title:

Uncertainty and the assessment of extinction probabilities

Periodical:

Ecological Applications

Year:

1996

Volume:

6

Pages:

1067-1076

Subject:

Bayesian theory Bird populations Palilao Extinction (biology) Hawaii Island

Summary:

A proper assessment of the population viability or probability of early collapse or extinction of a population are important parts of effort to mitigate or control human impacts upon natural populations and requires consideration of our uncertainty about crucial parameters and processes. As a result, the main objective of this work is to point out the large differences between the results of calculations of extinction probabilities that ignore one's uncertainty and those that take uncertainty into account. It is argued here that proper assessments must take account of uncertainty and that the Bayesian decision theory is an appropriate means to this end. In this work the author shows how the Bayesian methods may be used to calculate the probability of extinction from population census data.

Label:

Birds - General

URL:

http://cletus.uhh.hawaii.edu:2074/10.2307/2269591

Date:

1996

Collection:

Periodicals